Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage
JEF United Chiba
1–1
Lost
Azul Claro Numazu
The model leans JEF United Chiba at 68%. Expected goals: JEF United Chiba 2.69, Azul Claro Numazu 0.73. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 51%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match78
15
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1JEF United Chiba | 78% | 1.28 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.71 | – | – | – |
| 2Azul Claro Numazu | 7% | 14.37 | – | – | – |
Pick: JEF United Chiba. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 78%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.69 – 0.73| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.9%
- 3–010.7%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–18.6%
- 3–17.7%
- 4–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: JEF United Chiba −2| JEF United Chiba line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| -1 | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| -0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| 0 | 79% | 14% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.