Sanfrecce Hiroshima
JEF United Chiba
The model leans Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 54%. Expected goals: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.92, JEF United Chiba 0.83. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 51%. Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 4 of their last 6; JEF United Chiba won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 62% | 1.61 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.27 | – | – | – |
| 2JEF United Chiba | 14% | 6.93 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.92 – 0.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.3%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.6%
- 0–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sanfrecce Hiroshima −1| Sanfrecce Hiroshima line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 21% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 11% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.