Predictions · J. League · outside model coverage

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

11
Lost

Kawasaki Frontale

The model leans Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 51%. Expected goals: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.95, Kawasaki Frontale 1.10. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 58%. Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 4 of their last 6; Kawasaki Frontale won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Sanfrecce Hiroshima56%1.79
XDraw24%4.18
2Kawasaki Frontale20%4.96

Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.95 – 1.10
LineOverUnder
1.581%19%
2.559%41%
3.536%64%
Both teams to scoreYes57%No43%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.2%
  • 219.9%
  • 109.2%
  • 209.0%
  • 316.4%
  • 305.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Sanfrecce Hiroshima −1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.534%66%
-134%23%43%
-0.557%43%
057%22%21%
+0.579%21%
+179%13%8%
+1.592%8%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.