Urawa Red Diamonds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
The model leans Urawa Red Diamonds at 36%. Expected goals: Urawa Red Diamonds 1.15, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 56%. Urawa Red Diamonds won 2 of their last 6; Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Urawa Red Diamonds | 38% | 2.66 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.11 | – | – | – |
| 2Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 30% | 3.31 | – | – | – |
Pick: Urawa Red Diamonds. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.15 – 1.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–011.7%
- 0–111.7%
- 2–07.7%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Urawa Red Diamonds 0| Urawa Red Diamonds line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.