Gamba Osaka
Urawa Red Diamonds
The model leans Urawa Red Diamonds at 29%. Expected goals: Gamba Osaka 1.17, Urawa Red Diamonds 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Gamba Osaka won 2 of their last 6; Urawa Red Diamonds won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gamba Osaka | 34% | 2.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.28 | – | – | – |
| 2Urawa Red Diamonds | 35% | 2.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: Urawa Red Diamonds. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.17 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–09.4%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gamba Osaka 0| Gamba Osaka line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 21% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.