V-Varen Nagasaki
Gamba Osaka
The model leans Gamba Osaka at 30%. Expected goals: V-Varen Nagasaki 1.24, Gamba Osaka 1.26. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%. V-Varen Nagasaki won 2 of their last 6; Gamba Osaka won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1V-Varen Nagasaki | 35% | 2.87 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Gamba Osaka | 36% | 2.80 | – | – | – |
Pick: Gamba Osaka. Calibrated probability 30% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.24 – 1.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–08.2%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–18.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: V-Varen Nagasaki 0| V-Varen Nagasaki line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 20% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.