Gamba Osaka
Reilac Shiga
The model leans Gamba Osaka at 70%. Expected goals: Gamba Osaka 2.70, Reilac Shiga 0.54. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 60%. Gamba Osaka won 2 of their last 6; Reilac Shiga won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gamba Osaka | 82% | 1.22 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 13% | 7.56 | – | – | – |
| 2Reilac Shiga | 5% | 21.69 | – | – | – |
Pick: Gamba Osaka. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 82%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.70 – 0.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.2%
- 3–012.8%
- 1–010.5%
- 4–08.7%
- 2–17.7%
- 3–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gamba Osaka −2| Gamba Osaka line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| -1 | 62% | 20% | 17% |
| -0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| 0 | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| +0.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
| +1 | 95% | 4% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.