Reilac Shiga
Gainare Tottori
The model leans Gainare Tottori at 38%. Expected goals: Reilac Shiga 1.06, Gainare Tottori 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Reilac Shiga won 2 of their last 6; Gainare Tottori won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Reilac Shiga | 29% | 3.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.29 | – | – | – |
| 2Gainare Tottori | 41% | 2.46 | – | – | – |
Pick: Gainare Tottori. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.06 – 1.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%
- 0–112.3%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.4%
- 0–28.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Reilac Shiga 0| Reilac Shiga line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 19% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.