Gainare Tottori
RB Omiya Ardija
The model leans RB Omiya Ardija at 45%. Expected goals: Gainare Tottori 1.44, RB Omiya Ardija 1.93. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. Gainare Tottori won 4 of their last 6; RB Omiya Ardija won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gainare Tottori | 28% | 3.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.16 | – | – | – |
| 2RB Omiya Ardija | 48% | 2.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: RB Omiya Ardija. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.44 – 1.93| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.6%
- 1–29.2%
- 2–16.9%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–16.6%
- 0–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: RB Omiya Ardija −0.5| Gainare Tottori line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 16% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 22% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 21% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.