RB Omiya Ardija
Albirex Niigata
The model leans RB Omiya Ardija at 50%. Expected goals: RB Omiya Ardija 1.79, Albirex Niigata 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%. RB Omiya Ardija won 4 of their last 6; Albirex Niigata won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1RB Omiya Ardija | 55% | 1.83 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.94 | – | – | – |
| 2Albirex Niigata | 20% | 5.04 | – | – | – |
Pick: RB Omiya Ardija. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.79 – 1.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.0%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.2%
- 0–16.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: RB Omiya Ardija −0.5| RB Omiya Ardija line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.