Albirex Niigata
Fujieda MYFC
The model leans Draw at 29%. Expected goals: Albirex Niigata 0.92, Fujieda MYFC 0.88. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 63%. Albirex Niigata won 4 of their last 6; Fujieda MYFC won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Albirex Niigata | 34% | 2.98 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.81 | – | – | – |
| 2Fujieda MYFC | 31% | 3.24 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.92 – 0.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 0–016.5%
- 1–015.3%
- 0–114.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 2–07.1%
- 0–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Albirex Niigata 0| Albirex Niigata line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 22% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 33% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 21% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.