Iwaki FC
Albirex Niigata
The model leans Iwaki FC at 50%. Expected goals: Iwaki FC 1.26, Albirex Niigata 0.64. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 65%. Iwaki FC won 2 of their last 6; Albirex Niigata won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Iwaki FC | 50% | 1.99 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.12 | – | – | – |
| 2Albirex Niigata | 18% | 5.63 | – | – | – |
Pick: Iwaki FC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.26 – 0.64| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.8%
- 0–014.8%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.9%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Iwaki FC −0.5| Iwaki FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 30% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 14% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.