Iwaki FC
Oita Trinita
The model leans Iwaki FC at 51%. Expected goals: Iwaki FC 1.36, Oita Trinita 0.55. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 68%. Iwaki FC won 2 of their last 6; Oita Trinita won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Iwaki FC | 56% | 1.79 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.30 | – | – | – |
| 2Oita Trinita | 14% | 7.26 | – | – | – |
Pick: Iwaki FC. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.36 – 0.55| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 1–020.2%
- 0–014.8%
- 2–013.8%
- 1–111.0%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Iwaki FC −0.5| Iwaki FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 28% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 12% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.