Vegalta Sendai
Oita Trinita
The model leans Vegalta Sendai at 55%. Expected goals: Vegalta Sendai 1.61, Oita Trinita 0.50. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 68%. Vegalta Sendai won 2 of their last 6; Oita Trinita won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vegalta Sendai | 64% | 1.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.85 | – | – | – |
| 2Oita Trinita | 10% | 9.86 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vegalta Sendai. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.61 – 0.50| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 1–019.6%
- 2–015.7%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–08.4%
- 2–17.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vegalta Sendai −1| Vegalta Sendai line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 24% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 9% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.