Vegalta Sendai
Kataller Toyama
The model leans Vegalta Sendai at 51%. Expected goals: Vegalta Sendai 1.85, Kataller Toyama 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 51%. Vegalta Sendai won 2 of their last 6; Kataller Toyama won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vegalta Sendai | 59% | 1.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.08 | – | – | – |
| 2Kataller Toyama | 17% | 5.93 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vegalta Sendai. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.85 – 0.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.8%
- 2–010.9%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–06.7%
- 0–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vegalta Sendai −1| Vegalta Sendai line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.