Blaublitz Akita
Kataller Toyama
The model leans Blaublitz Akita at 44%. Expected goals: Blaublitz Akita 1.41, Kataller Toyama 0.92. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%. Blaublitz Akita won 1 of their last 6; Kataller Toyama won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Blaublitz Akita | 47% | 2.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.38 | – | – | – |
| 2Kataller Toyama | 23% | 4.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: Blaublitz Akita. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.41 – 0.92| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.7%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–09.7%
- 2–09.7%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Blaublitz Akita −0.5| Blaublitz Akita line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 25% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 16% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.