Predictions · J. League 2 · outside model coverage

Kataller Toyama

23
Lost

Fujieda MYFC

The model leans Kataller Toyama at 40%. Expected goals: Kataller Toyama 1.42, Fujieda MYFC 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%. Kataller Toyama won 3 of their last 6; Fujieda MYFC won 5 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Kataller Toyama43%2.30
XDraw29%3.44
2Fujieda MYFC28%3.63

Pick: Kataller Toyama. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.42 – 1.09
LineOverUnder
1.571%29%
2.546%54%
3.524%76%
Both teams to scoreYes50%No50%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.6%
  • 1011.6%
  • 218.9%
  • 018.9%
  • 208.2%
  • 008.2%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Kataller Toyama −0.5
Kataller Toyama lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.521%79%
-121%23%55%
-0.545%55%
045%27%29%
+0.571%29%
+171%18%11%
+1.589%11%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.