Montedio Yamagata
Fujieda MYFC
The model leans Montedio Yamagata at 38%. Expected goals: Montedio Yamagata 1.28, Fujieda MYFC 1.03. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%. Montedio Yamagata won 3 of their last 6; Fujieda MYFC won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Montedio Yamagata | 41% | 2.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.27 | – | – | – |
| 2Fujieda MYFC | 29% | 3.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: Montedio Yamagata. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.28 – 1.03| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.7%
- 0–110.2%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–18.4%
- 2–08.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Montedio Yamagata 0| Montedio Yamagata line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 23% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.