Montedio Yamagata
Tochigi City FC
The model leans Montedio Yamagata at 43%. Expected goals: Montedio Yamagata 1.76, Tochigi City FC 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. Montedio Yamagata won 3 of their last 6; Tochigi City FC won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Montedio Yamagata | 46% | 2.16 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.93 | – | – | – |
| 2Tochigi City FC | 28% | 3.52 | – | – | – |
Pick: Montedio Yamagata. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.76 – 1.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.9%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–06.9%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Montedio Yamagata −0.5| Montedio Yamagata line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 22% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 23% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 17% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.