Sagan Tosu
Tochigi City FC
The model leans Sagan Tosu at 50%. Expected goals: Sagan Tosu 1.58, Tochigi City FC 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 51%. Sagan Tosu won 3 of their last 6; Tochigi City FC won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sagan Tosu | 50% | 2.01 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
| 2Tochigi City FC | 23% | 4.42 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sagan Tosu. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.58 – 0.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.0%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–09.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.6%
- 0–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sagan Tosu −0.5| Sagan Tosu line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 24% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 15% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.