Tokushima Vortis
Sagan Tosu
The model leans Tokushima Vortis at 40%. Expected goals: Tokushima Vortis 1.39, Sagan Tosu 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 50%. Tokushima Vortis won 2 of their last 6; Sagan Tosu won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tokushima Vortis | 43% | 2.30 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Sagan Tosu | 27% | 3.69 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tokushima Vortis. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.39 – 1.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.7%
- 2–08.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tokushima Vortis −0.5| Tokushima Vortis line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 23% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 18% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.