Predictions · J. League 2/3 100 Year Vision League Placement Matches · outside model coverage

Tokushima Vortis

20
Won

Iwaki FC

The model leans Tokushima Vortis at 37%. Expected goals: Tokushima Vortis 1.29, Iwaki FC 1.10. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%. Tokushima Vortis won 2 of their last 6; Iwaki FC won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Tokushima Vortis40%2.53
XDraw30%3.31
2Iwaki FC30%3.31

Pick: Tokushima Vortis. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 70%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.29 – 1.10
LineOverUnder
1.569%31%
2.543%57%
3.522%78%
Both teams to scoreYes48%No52%

Most likely scores

  • 1113.0%
  • 1011.9%
  • 0110.1%
  • 009.2%
  • 218.4%
  • 207.7%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Tokushima Vortis 0
Tokushima Vortis lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.518%82%
-118%22%59%
-0.541%59%
041%28%32%
+0.568%32%
+168%19%12%
+1.588%12%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.