Giravanz Kitakyushu
Iwaki FC
The model leans Iwaki FC at 50%. Expected goals: Giravanz Kitakyushu 0.78, Iwaki FC 1.56. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 56%. Giravanz Kitakyushu won 1 of their last 5; Iwaki FC won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Giravanz Kitakyushu | 17% | 5.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.59 | – | – | – |
| 2Iwaki FC | 55% | 1.83 | – | – | – |
Pick: Iwaki FC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.78 – 1.56| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.1%
- 0–211.8%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–09.7%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Iwaki FC −0.5| Giravanz Kitakyushu line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 13% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| +0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| +1 | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.