Oita Trinita
Iwaki FC
The model leans Iwaki FC at 41%. Expected goals: Oita Trinita 0.67, Iwaki FC 1.12. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 66%. Oita Trinita won 1 of their last 6; Iwaki FC won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Oita Trinita | 21% | 4.86 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.91 | – | – | – |
| 2Iwaki FC | 45% | 2.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: Iwaki FC. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.67 – 1.12| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 0–118.8%
- 0–016.8%
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–210.5%
- 1–27.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Iwaki FC −0.5| Oita Trinita line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 16% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 32% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 27% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.