Oita Trinita
Shonan Bellmare
The model leans Shonan Bellmare at 40%. Expected goals: Oita Trinita 0.84, Shonan Bellmare 1.19. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 59%. Oita Trinita won 1 of their last 6; Shonan Bellmare won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Oita Trinita | 25% | 4.07 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.07 | – | – | – |
| 2Shonan Bellmare | 43% | 2.33 | – | – | – |
Pick: Shonan Bellmare. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.84 – 1.19| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.7%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–27.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Shonan Bellmare −0.5| Oita Trinita line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 18% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 30% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.