Sagan Tosu
Shonan Bellmare
The model leans Sagan Tosu at 38%. Expected goals: Sagan Tosu 1.23, Shonan Bellmare 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 55%. Sagan Tosu won 3 of their last 6; Shonan Bellmare won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sagan Tosu | 41% | 2.44 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.17 | – | – | – |
| 2Shonan Bellmare | 28% | 3.63 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sagan Tosu. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.23 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.2%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–08.5%
- 2–18.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sagan Tosu 0| Sagan Tosu line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 24% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 18% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.