Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage
Shonan Bellmare
1–0
Lost
Rein Meer Aomori
The model leans Rein Meer Aomori at 50%. Expected goals: Shonan Bellmare 0.89, Rein Meer Aomori 1.59. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match20
28
53
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Shonan Bellmare | 20% | 5.04 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.63 | – | – | – |
| 2Rein Meer Aomori | 53% | 1.90 | – | – | – |
Pick: Rein Meer Aomori. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.89 – 1.59| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.4%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–210.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.4%
- 1–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rein Meer Aomori −0.5| Shonan Bellmare line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 14% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.