RB Omiya Ardija
Shonan Bellmare
The model leans RB Omiya Ardija at 43%. Expected goals: RB Omiya Ardija 1.81, Shonan Bellmare 1.38. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. RB Omiya Ardija won 4 of their last 6; Shonan Bellmare won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1RB Omiya Ardija | 47% | 2.14 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
| 2Shonan Bellmare | 28% | 3.52 | – | – | – |
Pick: RB Omiya Ardija. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.81 – 1.38| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.4%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–06.7%
- 2–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: RB Omiya Ardija −0.5| RB Omiya Ardija line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 22% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 16% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.