Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
RB Omiya Ardija
The model leans Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo at 37%. Expected goals: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1.73, RB Omiya Ardija 1.68. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 68%. Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo won 2 of their last 6; RB Omiya Ardija won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 39% | 2.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.07 | – | – | – |
| 2RB Omiya Ardija | 37% | 2.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.73 – 1.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.6%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.7%
- 0–15.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 0| Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 19% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 23% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 19% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.