Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
Ventforet Kofu
The model leans Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo at 37%. Expected goals: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1.11, Ventforet Kofu 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 59%. Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo won 2 of their last 6; Ventforet Kofu won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 39% | 2.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.01 | – | – | – |
| 2Ventforet Kofu | 28% | 3.55 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.11 – 0.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.8%
- 0–013.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.1%
- 2–08.2%
- 2–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 0| Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 24% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.