Sagan Tosu
Ventforet Kofu
The model leans Sagan Tosu at 37%. Expected goals: Sagan Tosu 0.97, Ventforet Kofu 0.69. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 68%. Sagan Tosu won 3 of their last 6; Ventforet Kofu won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sagan Tosu | 40% | 2.52 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.73 | – | – | – |
| 2Ventforet Kofu | 24% | 4.21 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sagan Tosu. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.97 – 0.69| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 77% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 0–019.0%
- 1–018.5%
- 0–113.1%
- 1–112.7%
- 2–09.0%
- 2–16.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 64% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sagan Tosu 0| Sagan Tosu line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 25% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 34% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 18% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.