Nara Club
Sagan Tosu
The model leans Sagan Tosu at 44%. Expected goals: Nara Club 1.13, Sagan Tosu 1.61. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%. Nara Club won 2 of their last 6; Sagan Tosu won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nara Club | 25% | 3.94 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.69 | – | – | – |
| 2Sagan Tosu | 47% | 2.11 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sagan Tosu. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.13 – 1.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–07.3%
- 2–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sagan Tosu −0.5| Nara Club line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 16% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 25% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 23% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.