Nara Club
Kagoshima United
The model leans Kagoshima United at 44%. Expected goals: Nara Club 1.17, Kagoshima United 1.65. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. Nara Club won 2 of their last 6; Kagoshima United won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nara Club | 26% | 3.85 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.74 | – | – | – |
| 2Kagoshima United | 47% | 2.11 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kagoshima United. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.17 – 1.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.1%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kagoshima United −0.5| Nara Club line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 24% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 23% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.