Kagoshima United
Thespa Gunma
The model leans Kagoshima United at 51%. Expected goals: Kagoshima United 1.83, Thespa Gunma 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%. Kagoshima United won 4 of their last 6; Thespa Gunma won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kagoshima United | 56% | 1.80 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.01 | – | – | – |
| 2Thespa Gunma | 19% | 5.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kagoshima United. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.83 – 1.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.8%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.8%
- 3–16.0%
- 3–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kagoshima United −1| Kagoshima United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 23% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 13% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.