Kamatamare Sanuki
Kagoshima United
The model leans Kagoshima United at 51%. Expected goals: Kamatamare Sanuki 0.78, Kagoshima United 1.66. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%. Kamatamare Sanuki won 1 of their last 5; Kagoshima United won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kamatamare Sanuki | 16% | 6.17 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
| 2Kagoshima United | 57% | 1.75 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kagoshima United. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.78 – 1.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.6%
- 0–212.1%
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.8%
- 1–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kagoshima United −1| Kamatamare Sanuki line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 12% | 83% |
| -0.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| 0 | 17% | 24% | 58% |
| +0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| +1 | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| +1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.