Albirex Niigata
Kagoshima United
The model leans Kagoshima United at 33%. Expected goals: Albirex Niigata 0.88, Kagoshima United 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 61%. Albirex Niigata won 4 of their last 6; Kagoshima United won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Albirex Niigata | 29% | 3.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.90 | – | – | – |
| 2Kagoshima United | 36% | 2.75 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kagoshima United. Calibrated probability 33% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.88 – 1.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.3%
- 0–015.1%
- 1–113.4%
- 1–013.3%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–26.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Albirex Niigata 0| Albirex Niigata line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 20% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 32% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.