Kagoshima United
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
The model leans Kagoshima United at 41%. Expected goals: Kagoshima United 1.42, Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 50%. Kagoshima United won 4 of their last 6; Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kagoshima United | 45% | 2.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.41 | – | – | – |
| 2Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 26% | 3.85 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kagoshima United. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.42 – 1.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%
- 1–012.4%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–08.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kagoshima United −0.5| Kagoshima United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.