Thespa Gunma
Albirex Niigata
The model leans Thespa Gunma at 37%. Expected goals: Thespa Gunma 1.36, Albirex Niigata 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. Thespa Gunma won 1 of their last 6; Albirex Niigata won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Thespa Gunma | 40% | 2.53 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.43 | – | – | – |
| 2Albirex Niigata | 31% | 3.20 | – | – | – |
Pick: Thespa Gunma. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.36 – 1.18| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–07.9%
- 1–27.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Thespa Gunma 0| Thespa Gunma line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 22% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 27% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 19% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.