Nagano Parceiro
Thespa Gunma
The model leans Thespa Gunma at 50%. Expected goals: Nagano Parceiro 0.94, Thespa Gunma 1.58. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 50%. Nagano Parceiro won 2 of their last 6; Thespa Gunma won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nagano Parceiro | 21% | 4.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
| 2Thespa Gunma | 51% | 1.96 | – | – | – |
Pick: Thespa Gunma. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.94 – 1.58| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.7%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.0%
- 1–07.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Thespa Gunma −0.5| Nagano Parceiro line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 15% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 25% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 25% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.