FC Tokyo
Nagano Parceiro
The model leans FC Tokyo at 74%. Expected goals: FC Tokyo 2.83, Nagano Parceiro 0.30. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 76%. FC Tokyo won 3 of their last 6; Nagano Parceiro won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Tokyo | 89% | 1.13 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 10% | 10.38 | – | – | – |
| 2Nagano Parceiro | 2% | 54.95 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Tokyo. Calibrated probability 74% (raw model output 89%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 98%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.83 – 0.30| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes24% | No76% |
Most likely scores
- 2–017.6%
- 3–016.6%
- 1–012.5%
- 4–011.8%
- 5–06.7%
- 2–15.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS No 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Tokyo −2| FC Tokyo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| -1 | 70% | 18% | 11% |
| -0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| 0 | 89% | 9% | 2% |
| +0.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
| +1 | 98% | 2% | 0% |
| +1.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.