Shimizu S-Pulse
FC Tokyo
The model leans FC Tokyo at 43%. Expected goals: Shimizu S-Pulse 0.73, FC Tokyo 1.21. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 63%. Shimizu S-Pulse won 2 of their last 6; FC Tokyo won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Shimizu S-Pulse | 21% | 4.76 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.05 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Tokyo | 46% | 2.16 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Tokyo. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.73 – 1.21| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 0–117.5%
- 0–014.5%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–210.5%
- 1–010.5%
- 1–27.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Tokyo −0.5| Shimizu S-Pulse line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 16% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 30% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 26% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.