V-Varen Nagasaki
FC Tokyo
The model leans FC Tokyo at 41%. Expected goals: V-Varen Nagasaki 0.85, FC Tokyo 1.28. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 57%. V-Varen Nagasaki won 2 of their last 6; FC Tokyo won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1V-Varen Nagasaki | 24% | 4.23 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.18 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Tokyo | 45% | 2.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Tokyo. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.85 – 1.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.2%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–011.9%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–29.7%
- 1–28.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Tokyo −0.5| V-Varen Nagasaki line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 17% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.