Kashiwa Reysol
V-Varen Nagasaki
The model leans Kashiwa Reysol at 51%. Expected goals: Kashiwa Reysol 1.78, V-Varen Nagasaki 0.86. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%. Kashiwa Reysol won 4 of their last 6; V-Varen Nagasaki won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kashiwa Reysol | 58% | 1.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.96 | – | – | – |
| 2V-Varen Nagasaki | 17% | 5.95 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kashiwa Reysol. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.78 – 0.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.7%
- 2–011.3%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.1%
- 3–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 42% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kashiwa Reysol −1| Kashiwa Reysol line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.