Cerezo Osaka
Kashiwa Reysol
The model leans Kashiwa Reysol at 36%. Expected goals: Cerezo Osaka 1.46, Kashiwa Reysol 1.50. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 61%. Cerezo Osaka won 4 of their last 6; Kashiwa Reysol won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cerezo Osaka | 36% | 2.80 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.74 | – | – | – |
| 2Kashiwa Reysol | 38% | 2.66 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kashiwa Reysol. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.46 – 1.50| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cerezo Osaka 0| Cerezo Osaka line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 19% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 25% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 20% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.