Tokyo Verdy
Kashiwa Reysol
The model leans Kashiwa Reysol at 45%. Expected goals: Tokyo Verdy 0.85, Kashiwa Reysol 1.38. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 56%. Tokyo Verdy won 1 of their last 6; Kashiwa Reysol won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tokyo Verdy | 22% | 4.61 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| 2Kashiwa Reysol | 48% | 2.07 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kashiwa Reysol. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.85 – 1.38| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–210.3%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kashiwa Reysol −0.5| Tokyo Verdy line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 16% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 28% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.