Fagiano Okayama FC
Tokyo Verdy
The model leans Fagiano Okayama FC at 40%. Expected goals: Fagiano Okayama FC 1.17, Tokyo Verdy 0.82. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 60%. Fagiano Okayama FC won 2 of their last 6; Tokyo Verdy won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fagiano Okayama FC | 43% | 2.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.04 | – | – | – |
| 2Tokyo Verdy | 24% | 4.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fagiano Okayama FC. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.17 – 0.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.0%
- 0–013.6%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.2%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fagiano Okayama FC −0.5| Fagiano Okayama FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 17% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.