Tokyo Verdy
Vissel Kobe
The model leans Vissel Kobe at 38%. Expected goals: Tokyo Verdy 0.80, Vissel Kobe 1.10. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 62%. Tokyo Verdy won 1 of their last 6; Vissel Kobe won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tokyo Verdy | 25% | 3.99 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.95 | – | – | – |
| 2Vissel Kobe | 41% | 2.44 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vissel Kobe. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.80 – 1.10| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 0–116.4%
- 0–014.9%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–27.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vissel Kobe −0.5| Tokyo Verdy line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 18% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 31% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 25% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.