Predictions · J. League · outside model coverage

Vissel Kobe

22
Lost

FC Tokyo

The model leans FC Tokyo at 29%. Expected goals: Vissel Kobe 1.03, FC Tokyo 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 56%. Vissel Kobe won 4 of their last 6; FC Tokyo won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Vissel Kobe32%3.09
XDraw33%3.07
2FC Tokyo35%2.85

Pick: FC Tokyo. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 68%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.03 – 1.08
LineOverUnder
1.562%38%
2.535%65%
3.516%84%
Both teams to scoreYes42%No58%

Most likely scores

  • 1113.5%
  • 0113.1%
  • 1012.5%
  • 0012.1%
  • 127.3%
  • 027.1%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Vissel Kobe 0
Vissel Kobe lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.513%87%
-113%21%66%
-0.534%66%
034%30%36%
+0.564%36%
+164%22%15%
+1.585%15%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.