FC Tokyo
Machida Zelvia
The model leans FC Tokyo at 32%. Expected goals: FC Tokyo 1.00, Machida Zelvia 0.87. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 62%. FC Tokyo won 3 of their last 6; Machida Zelvia won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Tokyo | 36% | 2.77 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.88 | – | – | – |
| 2Machida Zelvia | 29% | 3.44 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Tokyo. Calibrated probability 32% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.00 – 0.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 0–015.5%
- 1–015.4%
- 0–113.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 2–07.7%
- 2–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Tokyo 0| FC Tokyo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 23% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 32% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.