Machida Zelvia
Urawa Red Diamonds
The model leans Machida Zelvia at 40%. Expected goals: Machida Zelvia 1.11, Urawa Red Diamonds 0.73. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 64%. Machida Zelvia won 5 of their last 6; Urawa Red Diamonds won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Machida Zelvia | 43% | 2.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.92 | – | – | – |
| 2Urawa Red Diamonds | 23% | 4.42 | – | – | – |
Pick: Machida Zelvia. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.11 – 0.73| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.7%
- 0–015.9%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Machida Zelvia −0.5| Machida Zelvia line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 26% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 32% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 17% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.